The Candlemas festival falls right in the middle of the winter season: 44 days after the winter solstice and 50 days before the spring equinox. So it has always been regarded as an ideal day for forecasting the weather, especially how many days of cold are left. Si la Candelera plora, l’hivern és fora; si la Candelera riu, l’hivern és viu is a well-known Catalan saying.

Traditionally it was understood to mean rain on Candlemas Day signalled the end of winter was near, while a clear sky was a sign there were still more cold days in store. But there is another interpretation linked to the lunar calendar which is said to be closer to the mark, namely that, if there is a new moon, you can’t see it and the Candle ‘cries’, meaning spring is coming. If, on the other hand, there is a full moon, the Candle ‘laughs’, so winter still has a long time to go. There is a similar English saying which goes like this:
If Candlemas Day be fair and bright
Winter will have another fight
If Candlemas Day brings cloud and rain
Winter won’t come again

In the mountains there was also a popular belief that it was around Candlemas when bears started to wake from their hibernation: Per la Candelera, l’ós surt de l’ossera (At Candlemas the bear comes out of his lair) In the Pyrenees, people believe this is the day that a bear wakes up, comes out of its cave and, depending on the weather, will fully wake up or go back to sleep. The explanation is that the bear comes out and looks at the night sky. If it’s a full moon, he goes back into his shelter for another 40 days of lethargy, but if it’s a new moon, he abandons his lair because he knows winter is over.

This belief has given rise to the bear festival in lots of mountain villages in Catalan-speaking lands. Those in the county of Vallespir are particularly well-known but the pattern of the festival is practically the same everywhere: a man dressed up as a bear scares and annoys the populace because it means the beast has finished hibernating. Although these days they usually take place round Carnival, which is also held in February, the original meaning was linked to the popular belief that it is held at Candlemas.

And doesn’t this idea of an animal deciding to shake off its winter lethargy according to the weather remind you of something? On 2 February many places in the United States celebrate Marmot Day. This festival, now very popular thanks to a film starring Bill Murray, consists of guessing the end of winter from the animal’s movements: if the marmot can’t see its shadow because it’s cloudy, it will leave its burrow, so spring is drawing near. But if it’s a sunny day, the marmot can see its shadow and will retreat into its burrow, meaning winter will last another six weeks. No one really knows where this custom comes from but lots of farmers in Canada and the US follow it and in some places it has turned into a big festival.