Avoid-Shift-Improve: the formula for a liveable and healthy city
Weathering the blow of climate change
- Dossier
- Apr 25
- 15 mins

In the Mediterranean, one of the fastest-warming regions in the world, extreme weather events pose a particular threat to cities like Barcelona. In addition to implementing solid early warning systems and disaster preparedness measures, a long-term strategy is needed to reduce air pollution, alleviate the urban heat island effect, encourage a shift away from car use and expand green spaces.
The past few years have been the hottest on record, and high temperatures caused over 60,000 deaths in Europe alone in 2022. Current global climate projections show that we are heading towards a 2.7-degree Celsius warming, with the year 2024 already 1.5C warmer compared to pre-industrial levels.
The Mediterranean region is one of the fastest-warming regions in the world, with estimates of a four-degree Celsius increase. The ongoing drought and longer heatwaves in Catalonia, along with the recent tragic flooding events in Valencia in October 2024, which left more than 200 people dead and caused billions of euros in damage, highlight the severe impacts of climate change. Although such “gota fría” (cold drop) events have occurred before, this time their severity was amplified by the warmer-than-usual Mediterranean sea, which led to increased evaporation followed by severe rainfall.
As is often the case with disasters, it was a convergence of different factors: climate change (more energy in the climate system), poor urban planning (building in unsuitable areas and an excess of impermeable surfaces), poor politics (political denialism and opportunism) and a lack of effective warning and response mechanisms, to name a few.
It is now evident that we need to take climate change more seriously. We must establish robust early warning and disaster preparedness systems, create more (temporary) shelters to protect against extreme heat and enforce better building standards, among other measures. However, this is not enough; we need to adopt a longer-term perspective.
Like Valencia, Barcelona is a Mediterranean city with around 1.6 million residents in a metropolitan area of approximately 3.5 million people. Each year, nearly 3,000 premature deaths occur due to suboptimal urban and transport planning. Barcelona is a compact city with the second-highest population density in Europe (after Paris). Every day, between 400,000 and 500,000 cars enter the city, resulting in some of the highest traffic densities in Europe. Although only one out of four trips in the city is made by car, it feels as though everyone drives because of the large amount of space cars occupy, leaving limited space available for other uses. The transportation sector accounts for a significant proportion of CO2 emissions, and urgent reductions are required to achieve the Paris Agreement climate goals.
Urban planning to mitigate impacts
A recent large-scale review of multiple-city studies demonstrated the clear relationship between urban and transport planning, environmental quality, greenhouse gas emissions and health.[1] Better urban planning could, therefore, offer a solution to mitigate climate change impacts while improving health. The co-benefits of climate action are well recognised and well-documented, but the urgency to implement these measures remains lacking.
Compact cities are the leading paradigm of sustainable urban living, but they may have drawbacks. A recent study of nearly 1,000 European cities showed that high-density compact cities have 10-15% higher mortality rates, less green space, poorer air quality and a stronger urban heat island effect, but lower greenhouse gas (CO2) emissions per capita.[2] In contrast, greener and less densely populated cities have lower mortality rates, lower air pollution levels and a reduced urban heat island effect, but higher carbon footprints per capita.
This does not mean, though, that compact cities are bad, only that we need to introduce appropriate policy measures to reduce the current health burden and higher mortality rate, while taking full advantage of the benefits they may offer. An example is Barcelona, a compact city with a mortality rate comparable to the average mortality rate of compact cities in the study. Lowering air pollution levels, reducing urban heat island effects, shifting away from cars and increasing green space, cycling lanes and physical activity would substantially reduce the mortality rate.[3]
Electric cars are often proposed as the panacea, but they only go part of the way in reducing CO2 and air pollution emissions. However, they are not the solution to issues such as the healthy use of public space, urban heat islands and lack of physical activity among the population. Furthermore, the mining and production of batteries has major environment impacts.
Principles such as Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) should be implemented. For example, in mobility: reduce car use by avoiding unnecessary trips, shift from car use to public and active transportation and improve the remaining car use by using electric vehicles. In Barcelona, 60% of public space (streets, roads and parking) is taken up by motorised traffic. Therefore, we need a reduction in traffic density of at least 50% in Barcelona to make more space for active and public transportation as well as green space. For example, on every street, buses should have their own dedicated lanes and there should be segregated cycling lanes. The Eixample neighbourhood should become like the El Born, Raval and Gòtic areas in terms of mobility. Safe segregated cycling lanes increase the uptake of cycling, boost physical activity, reduce mortality and lower CO2 emissions.
Cities should implement novel and innovative urban models such as the Paris 15-Minute City, the Barcelona Superblock, the London Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods and Vauban Freiburg’s car-free neighbourhood to shift from car-centric planning to people-centric planning. The original Barcelona Superblock model of 502 Superblocks was an excellent plan to reduce climate, environmental and health problems in the city. Green corridors, such as the one introduced on Carrer del Consell de Cent, demonstrated their potential benefits. Unfortunately, short-sighted opportunistic opposition halted a plan that could have delivered long-term gains.[4]
Moreover, road pricing and (ultra) low-emission zones are effective ways to reduce private car use, CO2 and air pollution emissions and concentrations, as well as to improve health. Zero-emission transport in European cities could be achieved by around 2030 with ambitious and multiple measures, along with the necessary political will and leadership.
Increasing green space is an effective way to lower urban heat island effects and air pollution.
How to reduce the effects of urban heat islands
Furthermore, increasing green space is an effective way to lower urban heat island effects and air pollution, contribute to carbon sequestration and improve physical and mental health. Urban heat islands contribute to 4% of premature mortality in the summer, and one-third of premature mortality due to urban heat islands could be avoided if 30% tree cover was achieved in European cities.[5] New concepts such as the 3-30-300 green space rule are aspirational and provide both climate and health benefits, but only 6% of residents in Barcelona currently meet this standard. The 3-30-300 rule recommends that every citizen should be able to see three trees from their window, live in an area with 30% tree cover and live within 300 metres of a major green space.
A solid evidence base is often regarded as essential for making the case for the transformational change that is needed, but it is not the only requirement. A lack of political will and commitment, together with relatively short election cycles, remains one of the most fundamental barriers to climate action. Struggles for power and influence, resistance from vested interests and lobbyists, resistance from (some) citizens and the demands of short-term election cycles make long-term transitional policymaking challenging and consume political capital. Besides this, multiple layers of governance complicate the achievement of consistent, effective and coherent action (e.g. city, metropolitan area, province, Catalonia and Spain).
Finance and financial systems are also important aspects, particularly under the current economic frameworks and models where externalities are generally not (fully) accounted for. Economic benefits often accrue to a select group of individuals and companies, while society (or the city) bears the costs. Furthermore, financial restraints such as high upfront costs, budget limitations and limited access to funding are significant barriers for cities and citizens. In addition, those (departments) that pay for climate measures may not always reap the economic benefits.
Finally, siloed thinking exists in many cities, whereby there is little interaction between various departments such as urban planning, mobility, environment, climate, public health, education and business. This leads to conflicting policy agendas and priorities, as well as competition for the limited (financial) resources available, rather than the cohesive and overarching policies required to address a critical threat like climate change. Common goals and visions, workshops and courses bringing different departments together, shared budgets and committed leadership could help to overcome some of this.
A better, more health-oriented narrative may help to address the climate crisis and improve health, but we also need a more integrated and holistic vision of what our society and cities should be and look like to capture the imagination of politicians, decision-makers and citizens to drive behavioural change. For example, a shift away from our car-centric planning and an emphasis on greater greening are essential.
By 2050, societies and cities that have embraced climate action will be cleaner, greener, more resilient and more liveable. Urban environments will prioritise sustainability alongside the health and well-being of their residents. In contrast, societies and cities that fail to take decisive climate action by 2050 will likely face environmental degradation, social inequality, economic decline and a diminished quality of life for their residents. The divide between proactive and inactive societies and cities will grow increasingly stark, with inaction bringing potentially irreversible consequences. The year 2050 is just around the corner and therefore urgency in climate action is essential. Stop looking for excuses not to act. Act now. Valencia stands as yet another warning.
[1] Dyer, G. M. C. et al. “Exploring the nexus of urban form, transport, environment and health in large-scale urban studies: A state-of-the-art scoping review”. Environmental Research. 2024. via.bcn/s0Fl50UMqM2
[2] Iungman, T. et al. “The impact of urban configuration types on urban heat islands, air pollution, CO2 emissions, and mortality in Europe: a data science approach”. Lancet Planet Health. 2024. via.bcn/AWpM50UOvXS
[3] Nieuwenhuijsen, M. “Climate crisis, cities, and health”. The Lancet. 2024. via.bcn/BITx50UMqP5
[4] Nieuwenhuijsen, M. et al. “The Superblock model: A review of an innovative urban model for sustainability, liveability, health and well-being”. Environmental Research. 2024. via.bcn/bC7U50UOw02
[5] Iungman, T. et al. “Cooling cities through urban green infrastructure: a health impact assessment of European cities”. The Lancet. 2023. via.bcn/bpOG50UOw0y
Traffic-Related Air PollutionHaneen Khreis, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Josias Zietsman and Tara Ramani Elsevier, 2020
Advances in Transportation and Health. Tools, Technologies, Policies, and DevelopmentsMark Nieuwenhuijsen and Haneen Khreis Elsevier, 2020
The newsletter
Subscribe to our newsletter to keep up to date with Barcelona Metròpolis' new developments